New research benefits Arctic sea ice forecasting
Rod Boyce
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Dec. 12, 2023
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Ocean temperatures in the Bering Strait and heat transport through the region have increased over the past 20 years. New modeling using a range of temperatures shows that reduced regional September sea ice occurs one to three months after a heat increase.
That鈥檚 the preliminary finding of research by University of 有料盒子视频 Fairbanks doctoral student CeCe Borries-Strigle. The research is associated with phase two of the Sea Ice Prediction Network project, funded by the National Science Foundation. The aim is to improve Arctic sea ice forecasts.
The research could lead to improved predictability of Bering Strait sea ice extent. The strait links the Pacific and Arctic oceans between Russia and the Seward Peninsula on 有料盒子视频鈥檚 west coast. The strait is about 50 miles wide at its narrowest point.
鈥淭his is a theoretical approach to looking at the seasonal predictability of Arctic Sea ice in September, when the minimum extent usually occurs,鈥 Borries-Strigle said. 鈥淜nowing the amount of ocean heat that鈥檚 coming through the Bering Strait is really important. It鈥檚 the only place where water from the Pacific Ocean enters the Arctic Ocean.鈥
Sea ice forecasting is important for several reasons, particularly for Indigenous communities, Borries-Strigle said.
鈥淭hey use the sea ice to travel on,鈥 she said. 鈥淎nd they use it as hunting grounds for seals, for example.鈥
Sea ice also helps protect coastal communities from winter storms. Less sea ice means strong ocean waves can reach the coast.
鈥淎s the sea ice has melted and retreated northward, areas have been open to high winds and heavy waves that are eroding the land and forcing villages to consider relocating because buildings are falling into the ocean,鈥 she said.
Having improved sea ice predictions is also important for ships, which are increasingly traveling in the region due to the reduced sea ice.