有料盒子视频 scientist to aid NASA鈥檚 space weather forecasting

Rod Boyce
907-474-7185
Oct. 27, 2023

A University of 有料盒子视频 Fairbanks scientist will have a role in a new NASA center that aims to greatly improve space weather forecasting and preparedness for adverse events.

NASA in August announced the creation of four . NASA鈥檚 goal is to have improved space weather forecasting models and products ready for operation within five years.

Research assistant professor Do臒acan 脰锄迟眉谤办 of the 有料盒子视频 Geophysical Institute is a co-investigator at the new Space Weather Operational Readiness Development center. SWORD is one of the four new space weather centers.

Earth-sun interaction
NASA illustration
This illustration shows the interaction between the sun and Earth.

The SWORD center aims to create space weather forecasts more precise and frequent than presently occurs.

Improved forecasting will benefit operators of satellites, communications and navigation systems, and power grids, all of which can be damaged or disrupted by space weather.

鈥淲e have a good sense of how things work on a large scale, but we are having problems when we start looking at the smaller scales,鈥 脰锄迟眉谤办  said.

鈥淔or example, it might be snowing in downtown Fairbanks but not in the nearby hills. Those small differences are important for operational purposes,鈥 she said. 鈥淲hat we want to be able to do in near-Earth space is similar. We want to have a more refined-resolution forecast for space weather.鈥

The SWORD center will be housed at the University of Colorado Boulder and led by Thomas Berger, director of the university鈥檚 . The SWORD center derived from that group.

The SWORD center will conduct research to improve forecasts and nowcasts of the orbital space environment, particularly in the critical low-Earth orbit domain that is becoming increasingly congested with satellites and debris. SWORD research will also investigate the space between Earth and the moon generally outside the protective shell of Earth鈥檚 magnetic field, to aid NASA鈥檚 Artemis program in its lunar exploration plans. 

鈥淭his is about expanding our numerical modeling capabilities for forecasting and the mitigation of space weather and space-related risks in the near-Earth environment,鈥 脰锄迟眉谤办 said.

Sun
Image by Solar Dynamics Observatory, NASA
An elongated coronal hole rotated across the face of the sun in January 2017, streaming solar wind toward Earth.

The research will lead to better modeling of the interaction between Earth鈥檚 protective magnetosphere, which shields the planet from much of the sun鈥檚 radiation, and an area known as the ionosphere-thermosphere-mesosphere region. That area begins at about 31 miles above Earth鈥檚 surface and reaches to the top of the thermosphere, at the edge of space, at about 300 to 600 miles.

The thermosphere鈥檚 depth varies because the solar wind can heat it, causing it to expand. The solar wind is the continual particle stream that speeds from the sun at more than 1 million miles per hour and interacts with Earth鈥檚 magnetosphere.

The upper atmosphere thickens as its temperature increases, creating drag on the satellites and potentially causing them to fall from orbit. Such an event occurred in February 2022 when the effects of a solar storm knocked 40 Starlink satellites from orbit.

鈥淭he increased density and temperature caused by the solar input can create an environment that is not what these satellites were designed to operate in,鈥 脰锄迟眉谤办 said. 

脰锄迟眉谤办 and a postdoctoral researcher will study the ways energy dissipates in the magnetosphere, which can cause wave-like density variations in the upper atmosphere鈥檚 plasma. Plasma is a hot gas formed of electrically charged particles.

The center鈥檚 work will be available to NOAA and NASA through the cloud-based system of Amazon Web Services. The research may also benefit the U.S. Space Force and civilian space traffic managers as they attempt to track the ever-growing number of satellites and debris objects in orbit.  

In addition to 脰锄迟眉谤办, Colorado University Boulder鈥檚 SWORD center includes researchers from the National Center for Atmospheric Research High Altitude Observatory, University of Michigan, University of Iowa and the NASA Langley Research Center. 

Berger, of the University of Colorado Boulder, noted that forecasting space weather isn鈥檛 as easy as forecasting traditional weather in the lower atmosphere.

鈥淭he space weather system is more complex,鈥 he said. 鈥淵ou鈥檝e got magnetic fields. You鈥檝e got electric currents and plasmas. The solar radiation is changing all the time in ways that really affect the atmosphere, so you need more complex models and new data assimilation mechanisms to get a good forecast.鈥

ADDITIONAL CONTACT: Do臒acan 脰锄迟眉谤办, dsozturk@alaska.edu

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